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The commodity market follows the secular trend. If you look at the components of a time series, you will find that there are four distinct categories: the trend (or in this case secular trend), the cyclical variation, the seasonal variation and the irregular variation.
The differences are the following: the secular trend is the smoothed long-term direction of a time series. If we are talking about a 'soft' commodity such as agricultural products (wheat or coffee) or hard commodities such as gold or mined oil, then it is a secular trend rather than a seasonal one. The seasonal trend is defined by patterns of change in a time series within a year which repeats themselves
Example, 'The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was about $1.15 through most of the 1990s. Since then, except for a period between 2009 and 2010, it has increased steadily by almost $0.20 per year (Lind, 2015)'.
The cyclical variation involves the rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year.
within my knowledge it follows both trend as well as seasonal pattern. Thanks.
هل تحتاج لمساعدة في كتابة سيرة ذاتية تحتوي على الكلمات الدلالية التي يبحث عنها أصحاب العمل؟