Start networking and exchanging professional insights

Register now or log in to join your professional community.

Follow

Is commodity market price follow trend or Seasonal Pattern? Plz Reply

user-image
Question added by Faheem Shaikh , compliance officer , Phillip Capital
Date Posted: 2016/07/31

The commodity market follows the secular trend. If you look at the components of a time series, you will find that there are four distinct categories: the trend (or in this case secular trend), the cyclical variation, the seasonal variation and the irregular variation.  

The differences are the following:  the secular trend is the smoothed long-term direction of a time series.  If we are talking about a 'soft' commodity such as agricultural products (wheat or coffee) or hard commodities such as gold or mined oil, then it is a secular trend rather than a seasonal one.  The seasonal trend is defined by patterns of change in a time series within a year which repeats themselves 

Example, 'The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline was about $1.15 through most of the 1990s. Since then, except for a period between 2009 and 2010, it has increased steadily by almost $0.20 per year (Lind, 2015)'.  

The cyclical variation involves the rise and fall of a time series over periods longer than one year.  

Gayasuddin Mohammed
by Gayasuddin Mohammed , Advocate , Practicing Law before High Court at Hyderabad

within my knowledge it follows both trend as well as seasonal pattern. Thanks.

More Questions Like This

Do you need help in adding the right keywords to your CV? Let our CV writing experts help you.