How realistic is bottom up forecasting for Fashion related brands?

In my view, bottom up is very pragmatic approach which always rely and runs with current fashion trends. Any major even can turned around forecasts.

High end brands like "Invicta Watches" are more in with life style than fashion which can be realistically forecast top to bottom.

Dear Sidrah,

I understand your question as how reliable is bottom-up forecasting.

Trend scouts are bottom-up fashion forecasters. They observe, what people wear on the street,  especially in fashion-prone locations like Tokyo ( http://tokyofashion.com/japanese-street-fashion-trends-summer-2013/ ). Based on what individuals invent, trend scouts gather examples and describe the potential trends that will become a global within some years. The question is: How reliable are these forecasts?

1) Forecasts are probabilities. Evene with high probability the trend might not happen.

2) Bottom-up forecasts have to be taken over by the fashion industry to become real (e.g. as a collection).

3) Forecasts will never become real, if they are not prepared with publications, comments, reports.

A forecast is an extrapolation of current parameters. This provides a good look into the future. Nevertheles black swans will not be visible. Making forecasts real requires the preparation of the target audience with reports about trendsetters and celebrities.

Bottom line: Making forecasts real needs pro-active design and implementation of the trend within the industry and the public.