How to use history in identifying competitors' assumptions and future goals?

The history includes some data which has to be collected, some of them are about the competitor while the other part is about the market itself. This data has to be collected for3 to5 years back.

Talking about the competitor, we have to know the trend and values of turnover, financial results, market share, adverts, sharing in conferences and exhibitions, recruitment.

While when we talk about the market, we have to know the trend of the market volume and its directions in addition to the governmental trend.

Based on the historical trend of the above data, a numerical and logical prediction shall be made to estimate the expected trend of the future.

A fine tuning between the two ways (competitor trend and market trend) has to be adjusted in order to predict the competitor’s future goals.

One of the often powerful indicators of a competitor's goals and assumptions with respect to a business is its history in the business. The following questions suggest some ways to examine these areas:

1.       What is the competitor's current financial performance and market share, compared to that of the relatively recent past? This can a good first indication of future goals, particularly if results of the "remember-able" past were somewhat better and provide a tangible and annoyingly visible indicator of the competitor's potential. The competitor will almost always be striving to regain the performance of the recent past.

2.       What has been the competitor's history in the marketplace over time? Where has it failed or been beaten and thus perhaps not likely to tread again? The memory of past failures, and the impediments to future moves in those areas they bring, can be very lasting and given disproportionate weight.

3.       In what areas has the competitor starred or succeeded as a company? In new product introductions? Innovative marketing techniques? Others? In such areas the competitor may feel confident to initiate a move again or to do battler in the event of a provocation.

4.       How has the competitor reacted to particular strategic moves or industry events in the past? Rationally? Emotionally? Slowly? Quickly? What approaches have been employed? To what sorts of events has the competitor reacted poorly, and why?