To make the right decision, is it possible to estimate the odds effectively by relying only on your intuition?

Intuition is a gift from God, most leaders enjoy that quality, however in modern world it’s more efficient to profile expected actions and reactions as contengiant. The difference between a wild guess and an educated guess.

Thanks for invitation,

Of course not, you have to estimate and study all the odds (pros and cons), effectively in order to take any right decision.

I think you should use both, but first you have to gain enough experience to use intuition as a factor.

Thanks

No doubt No !, you need more information and investigation

of curse NOT, it takes more than that

No. You need facts and figures.

Thank you for the invitation.

In recent years, much has been written about evidence-based — or fact-based — decision making. The core idea is that decisions supported by hard facts and sound analysis are likely to be better than decisions made on the basis of instinct, folklore or informal anecdotal evidence.

Making good decisions is a quality that will help you to lead the life you want. Good decision-makers are sought after in the workplace and can use their skills to excel in their career. ... "Therefore, understanding how to make effective decisions is very important."

The seven-step strategy is:

1. Create a constructive environment.
2. Investigate the situation in detail.
3. Generate good alternatives.
4. Explore your options.
5. Select the best solution.
6. Evaluate your plan.
7. Communicate your decision, and take action.

Decision Making Styles: Directive, Analytical, Conceptual and Behavioural. Every leader prefers a different way to contemplate a decision. The four styles of decision making are directive, analytical, conceptual and behavioural. Each style is a different method of weighing alternatives and examining solutions.

We learned who was involved, what drove the decisions, how deep the analysis was, how unfettered the discussions, and how and where politics were involved.

The results highlight the hard business benefits—such as increased profits and rapid implementation—of several decision-making disciplines. These disciplines include ensuring that people with the right skills and experience are included in decision making, making decisions based on transparent criteria and a robust fact base, and ensuring that the person who will be responsible for implementing a decision is involved in making that decision. Finally, although corporate politics sometimes seems to undermine strong decision making, some types of consensus-building and alliances apparently can help create good outcomes.

Several elements of decision-making processes that are associated with good financial and operational outcomes, whether the goal is :

o    revenue growth or

o    cost savings.

o    One relatively straightforward finding is of strong relationships linking financial success, clarity about who is responsible for implementations, and the involvement of that individual in the decision-making process.

o    Other important findings concern the types of analysis, discussion, and corporate politics that are associated with successful decision making.

Corporate politics has a bad name, but respondents suggest that the effect of politics depends on the nature of the tactics used. When executives involved in a decision were primarily concerned with its effect on their business unit rather than the overall organization, for example, financial results and all other measures of success were much likelier to fall far below expectations. Simply put, a silo mind-set hurts performance. In addition, slow project completion times are associated with selective information reporting.

Finally, a word about CEO involvement: Respondents say CEOs tended to have a large role in instigating both the most and the least successful decisions. Perhaps this indicates CEOs are more likely than other executives to place—or be able to secure approval of—risky bets with big upsides and downsides. This result also suggests that thorough examination and devil’s advocacy will be particularly valuable when CEOs champion pet projects.

Unlike the external risks that accompany most strategic initiatives, the analysis of a project, its discussion, and the management of the internal politics lie entirely within the control of the top leadership team. Companies not using the best practices identified here should be able to improve their decisions simply by following these guidelines:

·         Pay particular attention to the risks of the project, examined through a detailed financial model, sensitivity analysis, and the relationship of those risks to the risks of other projects in the firm’s portfolio. Learning from past comparable situations also is beneficial.

·         Ensure that participants in the discussion about any decision are included on the basis of skills and experience, that decision criteria are transparent, and that the decision is discussed in relation to the organization’s other strategic decisions.

·         Put organizational goals ahead of business unit goals, and encourage efforts to build consensus across business units.

The Keys To Making a Good Decision

1. Identify the decision to be made as well as the objectives or outcome you want to achieve.

 

1. Do your homework. Gather as many facts and as much information you can to assess your options.

 

1. Brainstorm and come up with several possible choices. Determine if the options are compatible with your values, interests and abilities.

 

1. Weigh the probabilities or possible outcomes. In other words, what's the worst that can happen? What will happen if I do A, B or C and can I live with the consequences?

 

1. Make a list of the pros and cons. Prioritize which considerations are very important to you, and which are less so. Sometimes when you match the pros against the cons you may find them dramatically lopsided.

 

1. Solicit opinions and obtain feedback from those you trust or have had a similar situation to contend with. There may be some aspects you haven't thought about.

 

1. Make the decision and monitor your results. Make sure you obtain the desired outcome.

Points To Consider

 There are no guarantees. Certainly you can never know in advance whether a decision will be correct, therefore, you must be prepared to take risks.

 Look for the opportunities. If you make a mistake, view it as an opportunity to learn what didn't work and why. Many times decisions are reversible and you can change your mind.

 Hindsight is 20/20. On occasion, you might discover in hindsight situations that may have affected your decision had you known about them earlier. This is normal and typical but should not stall your decision-making process.

 Do not get stuck and do nothing. If you've done everything you can to make a good decision and still can't make up your mind, do not delay making an important decision for fear that you don't know enough or will make the wrong choice.

Don't let fear stop you. Sometimes people become so paralyzed with the fear of making a wrong decision that they panic and lose sight of what they're trying to accomplish. This hinders making any decision.

 Don't second-guess yourself. In the end, second-guessing yourself also undermines what you're trying to accomplish. Once you've made the decision, let the chips fall where they may. At the very least, you will have learned important lessons.

When all is said and done, all you can do is the best with what you have to work with. Incidentally, do not underestimate the power of intuition, or your gut feeling. After all the facts are weighed and evaluated, it can be the final determinant. Quite often it may be all you have to go by.

No, I think estimating the odds from other competitors should be considered for making the right decisions. For instance, if Coca Cola Company doesnt consider the growing factor of other brewering companies like Big Cola or Pepsi, they will be limited to their intelligence, thereby losing from the competition of wining the public interest - which could come from negligence on others' market plans. Again, if a football coach doesnt master the playing pattern of his opposing side, he misses the secret of their loopholes.

So I opine that making right decisions on effective estimations comes more from going beyond our boundaries

 

Would love to get knowledge from experts.