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Oil prices rose more than 45 % this year but If you compare this with the price 2 years ago it is still very low. Many economies don't feel the cheaper oil because of strong dollar.
Gulf market is changing but this doesn't occur quickly. Currently we don't know what would be the oil price in the next years, maybe 70-80 $ per barrel or maybe stagnation around 45 $ per barrel.
The problems faced by most gulf countries includes:
- currency reserves are decreasing
- annual budgets don't balance
- optimalization of budgets requires cost cutting
- structure of the job market (jobs mainly created in public sector)
- relatively big and young population which in the next years will enter the job market
- oil prices which are unpredictable
Reducing dependence on oil revenues makes the need to seek new sources of income. Many countries set different options:
- develop the tourist market
- invest in the infrastructure (develop transportation market)
- invest in the industry (don't create only logistics centers, produce and re-export final products)
- build the banking centers
- build the taxation system
At the end, low oil prices brings one good information, at current prices exploration of shale gas and oil is unprofitable.
Compared to other market the oil price is relatively cheaper in Gulf. For some residence with higher income the increase may not be too big enough to effect even.
I think that the Gulf market does not change
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